基于Petri网的安全免疫态势建模与预测

针对采用人工免疫机制的信息系统，为了简化其攻防博弈建模过程并对有限时间内的博弈结果进行预测，本文基于Petri网提出了信息系统安全态势评估网，对信息系统人工免疫过程的攻击态势和防御态势进行了建模，并针对所建立的模型讨论了系统攻防博弈结果的分析方法，能够支持对采用人工免疫机制的信息系统将在何时以何种概率防御成功或失败的结果进行预测，拓展了安全态势预测的思路和预测内容。经过仿真验证分析，证明所建模型在结构上无死锁、有界、竞争公平，在态势预测方面能够达到较好的预测效果。

Model and Prediction of Security Immune Situation Based on Petri Net

In order to simplify the modeling process of the offensive and defensive game of information system using artificial immune mechanism, and to predict the result of the game in finite time, this paper proposed a security situation assessment net, established a model including attack situation and defense situation, and discussed the analysis method of system attack and defense game. Method proposed in this paper expanded the idea of security situation prediction and enriched prediction content, which can be used to predict when and what the probability of success or failure will be. Through simulation and verification analysis, it is proved that the proposed model has no deadlock, bounded, and fair competition, and can provide a great predict effect.