| 基于粗糙集的模糊神经网络降水预报模型研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 史旭明,金龙,主毅. 基于粗糙集的模糊神经网络降水预报模型研究[J]. 计算机仿真, 2009, 26(1) |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 史旭明 金龙 主毅 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 广西气象减灾研究所,广西,南宁,530022;六盘水市气象局,贵州,六盘水,553001 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家科技部社会公益研究专项基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了提高模糊神经网络预测模型的预测能力,提出了基于粗集理论方法选择自变量作为模型输入的模糊神经网络预报建模方法.以短期降水预报作为研究对象,利用粗集理论的条件属性约简计算分析方法,对初选得到的预报因子矩阵进行属性约简,剔除不相关的属性,找出与预报量直接相关的预报因子,建立模糊神经网络的降水预报模型.实际的预报试验结果表明,该预报方法的预报精度明显高于由逐步回归方法选择预报因子作为模型输入的模糊神经网络预报模型及中国气象局T213数值预报模式的预报结果.
|
| 关 键 词： | 粗糙集 模糊神经网络 属性约简 降水预报 |
A Fuzzy Neural Network Precipitation Model Based on Rough Set |
| |
| SHI Xu-ming,JIN Long,ZHU Yi. A Fuzzy Neural Network Precipitation Model Based on Rough Set[J]. Computer Simulation, 2009, 26(1) |
| |
| Authors: | SHI Xu-ming JIN Long ZHU Yi |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Disaster Mitigation;Nanning Guangxi 530022;China;2.Liupanshui Meteorological Bureau;Liupanshui Guizhou 553001;China |
| |
| Abstract: | To improve the predictive ability of a fuzzy neural network(FNN) prediction model,the paper presents a prediction modeling methodology which combines the rough set attribute reduction with FNN.Taking short-term precipitation prediction as research objects and using attribute reduction to compute and analyse the original selected matrix of forecast factors,the scale of network is effectively reduced and the prediction ability of the FNN prediction model is evidently enhanced.Result shows that the FNN model b... |
| |
| Keywords: | Rough set Fuzzy neural network Attribute reduction Regional mean rainfall |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
