随机模拟在油气资源评价中的应用

油气资源评价过程中存在很多不确定地质因素,应用概率统计理论的随机模拟方法建立相应的地质模型进行资源量计算,得到资源量的概率分布,可以使评价结果更准确地反映真实的地质情况。文中基于随机模拟思路,系统论述了3种不同的油气资源量随机计算模型,即基于圈闭体积法的随机模拟、基于储层体积法的随机模拟以及基于油气藏个数和规模的随机模拟,并且将其应用于我国西部某盆地的碳酸盐岩区带、致密砂岩气藏区带以及勘探程度相对较高的常规油气藏区带。随机模拟在油气资源评价应用中,关键是对重要参数进行统计分析得到其概率分布,然后通过地质模型随机模拟计算得到资源量。应用结果表明,这3种资源量计算模型简单高效,适用于不同的油气藏类型和勘探程度的地区,并具有推广价值。

Application of stochastic simulation in oil and gas resources assessment

There are many uncertain geological factors in the process of oil and gas resources assessment.This paper applied probability and statistics theory of stochastic simulation method to establish a reliable geological model for the calculation of the amount of resources,and obtained the probability distribution of resources.The assessment results more accurately reflected the real geological conditions.Based on the stochastic simulation,three different stochastic calculation models of petroleum resource,which is based on trap volume,reservoir volume,and reservoir number and size,were systematically discussed and were applied in the carbonate rocks,tight sandstone gas and relatively high exploration degree of conventional oil and gas zones in the western basin of China.In application of stochastic simulation in oil and gas resources assessment,the statistical analysis of the important parameters of probability distribution is a key step of the assessment process,which can obtain the amount of resources by the geological models of stochastic simulation.Application results show that the three kinds of resources assessment models are simple,efficient and suitable for different prospecting areas with different types of reservoirs and different degree of exploration,which can be widely applied.