| 高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 鲁宗相,黄瀚,单葆国,王耀华,杜松怀,黎静华. 高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(9): 12-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 鲁宗相 黄瀚 单葆国 王耀华 杜松怀 黎静华 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系, 北京市 100084; 电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室, 清华大学, 北京市 100084,国网能源研究院, 北京市 102209,国网能源研究院, 北京市 102209,国网能源研究院, 北京市 102209,中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院, 北京市 100083,广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室(广西大学), 广西壮族自治区南宁市 530004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0900101) |
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| 摘 要： | 在清洁化、低碳化和智能化的能源革命背景下,高比例可再生能源成为电力系统未来发展的一个突出特征,也导致了电力系统结构形态的巨变。文中对高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测方法进行了阐述。首先分析了电力系统结构形态的内涵及其要素,建立了其形态演化的驱动力综合模型,然后结合高比例可再生能源发展趋势,分析其对电力系统形态结构的影响,建立高比例可再生能源驱动的电力系统形态演化模型。围绕高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化机理和复杂多重不确定性运行场景下的电力预测理论两个科学问题,分四个方面对其研究体系进行了详细阐述。
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| 关 键 词： | 高比例可再生能源；结构形态演变；广义负荷预测；驱动力模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-01-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017-03-25 |
Morphological Evolution Model and Power Forecasting Prospect of Future Electric Power Systems with High Proportion of Renewable Energy |
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| LU Zongxiang,HUANG Han,SHAN Baoguo,WANG Yaohu,DU Songhuai and LI Jinghua. Morphological Evolution Model and Power Forecasting Prospect of Future Electric Power Systems with High Proportion of Renewable Energy[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(9): 12-18 |
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| Authors: | LU Zongxiang HUANG Han SHAN Baoguo WANG Yaohu DU Songhuai LI Jinghua |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power System and Generation Equipments, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China,State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China,State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China,State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China,College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China and Key Laboratory of Guangxi Power System Optimization and Energy-saving Technology (Guangxi University), Nanning 530004, China |
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| Abstract: | In the midst of clean, low-carbon and smart energy revolution, a high proportion of renewable energy integration will be one of the basic characteristics of future electric power system that leads to tremendous changes in the morphological changes. And it also introduces the morphological evolution of generation, transmission, distribution and load of the system as a whole. The topology evolution model and power forecasting method of the future electric power systems are reviewed. The elements of the electric power system morphology and driving model are described first. Then based on analyzing the development trend of high proportion renewable energy generations, a future power system morphological evolution model is proposed. Key scientific issues are concluded as: 1)morphological evolution mechanism of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy; 2)power forecasting of complex multiple uncertainty operation scenarios. Suitable research framework is divided into four aspects and analyzed in detail. |
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| Keywords: | high proportion of renewable energy morphological evolution generalized load forecasting driving model |
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