山东地区气候要素变化特征分析及预测

基于山东地区的自然环境和社会经济状况,以降水和气温作为气候变化的表现因子,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall分析、有序聚类分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法,研究了山东地区1951~2015年降水和气温的趋势性、突变性、周期性和持久性,并通过R/S法对未来降水和气温进行预测。结果表明,1951~2015年山东地区降水基本呈不显著减少趋势,气温序列基本呈显著增加趋势;降水和气温的显著突变点主要发生于1960年代初、1970年代中、1980年代末和1990年代末;降水周期主要为3、11、16年,气温周期主要为6、16年;在未来周期时段内,降水和气温总体基本保持状态持续性。

Analysis and Prediction of Change Characteristics of Main Climatic Factors in Shandong Province

In view of the natural environment and socio-economic situation, taking precipitation and temperature as climate change factors, the tendency, mutability, periodicity and durability of precipitation and temperature in Shandong Province were analyzed by using the method of linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall analysis, sequential clustering, Morlet wavelet analysis and rescaled range analysis. And then R/S was used to forecast the precipitation and temperature in future. The results show that precipitation was indistinctively decreasing and temperature was significantly increasing in general from 1951 to 2015; the significant mutational sites of precipitation and temperature mainly occurred in the early 1960s, the mid-70s, the late 1980s and the late 1990s; the precipitation cycles are mainly 3a, 11a and 16a, and the temperature cycles are mainly 6a and 16a; the precipitation and temperature will hold continuity in general in the next cycle period.