钻井投资和油气价格对财务盈利能力影响实证分析

财务盈利能力是工程项目经济评价的重要内容之一。反映财务盈利能力的指标主要包括：内部收益率、投资回收期、财务净现值和投资利润率。对于油气田开发工程项目而言，影响财务盈利能力指标的因素很多，但钻井投资与油气价格是两个不可忽视的因素。因此，文章在建立钻井投资和油气价格与反映油气田开发工程项目财务盈利能力各指标数学模型的基础上，实证性分析了某油气田钻井投资和原油价格对财务盈利能力各指标的影响，在其他条件一定的情况下，利用回归拟合方法，拟合出了财务盈利能力各指标与钻井投资和原油价格关系的函数，计算了财务盈利能力各指标对钻井投资和原油价格的弹性系数，为油气田开发工程项目投资决策提供了参考依据。

POSITIVE ANALYSIS OF EFFECT OF DRILLING INVESTMENT AND OIL/GAS PRICE ON EARNING CAPACITY 1)

The earning capacity is one of the important i tems for the economic appraisal of engineering projects. The indexes to reflect the earning capacity mainly include: the internal rate of return; the period of cost recovery; the financial net present value; and the return rate on investmen t capital. As for the engineering projects of oil/gas field development, many fa ctors will influence the indexes of earning capacity. But the drilling investmen t and oil/gas price are 2 un-ignored factors. Based on the mathematical model e stablished on the drilling investment and oil/gas price and the all indexes refl ecting the earning capacity for oil/gas field development projects, the positive analysis of effect of drilling investment and oil/gas price on the indexes of e arning capacity is conducted for some oil/gas field. Given the other conditions are constant, with regression fitting method, the relation function of all the i ndexes of earning capacity with drilling investment and oil/gas price is derived , and the elasticity coefficients of all the indexes of earning capacity with dr illing investment and oil/gas price are calculated, which provide the ground for the investment decision-making of petroleum development projects.