几种概率潮流模型的准确性比较分析

以节点注入功率和PV电压运行曲线为基础，分析了几种概率潮流模型在迭代算式和计算精度上的差别，包括线性化模型、近似二阶模型和完整二阶模型，各种模型中，计及方差对均值的修正，同时还采用扩展的雅克比矩阵考虑了PV点和平衡点的电压曲线，试算结果表明，长期以来备受关注的近似二阶模型并不能保证电压实部方差的精度，而采用完整二阶模型计算的电压均值和方差具有相当高的精度。

Comparison and Analysis of Several Probabilistic Load Flow Approaches

Based on operating curves of nodal injections and PV nodal voltages, this paper compares several probabilistic load flow models in correcting equation and computational precision, including the linearized model, the approximate second order model and the complete second order model. In all models, the correction of covariances to expectations is considered, and operating curves of PV nodal voltages and slack nodal voltages are included by using extended Jacobian matrix. The result shows that the approximate second order model that has been cared for a long time cannot ensure the computational precision of variances of real part of nodal voltages, and the complete second order model can provide much accurate result for voltage expectations and covariances.