Modeling climate change impacts on water trading |
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Authors: | Bin Luo Imran Maqsood |
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Affiliation: | a Water Science and management Manitoba Ministry of Water Stewardship 200 Saulteaux Crescent Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3J 3W3 b Environmental Systems Engineering Program Faculty of Engineering University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada S4S 0A2 c School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China 59 Zhongguancun Road, Beijing 100872, PR China |
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Abstract: | This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. |
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Keywords: | Climate change Water trading Indicator Scenario Stochastic Uncertainty |
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