近50年齐齐哈尔市气候变化特征分析及其对农业生产的影响

根据齐齐哈尔市近50年逐月气温和降水量数据,采用Mann-Kendall、累积滤波器和距平分析方法,对不同时间尺度的气温和降水量变化特征进行分析。结果表明:年平均气温总体呈现上升趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以来,气温升高的速度和幅度明显加快。降水量年际和年内变化存在较大的差异,年降水量总体上呈下降趋势。而春季和冬季降水量呈上升趋势,夏、秋两季呈下降趋势。气候变化对齐齐哈尔市农业生产产生了多方面的影响,农业气象灾害增加,作物病虫害发生和影响程度加重,农业生产成本增加,使农业的不稳定性增强,气候变化对农业生产是弊大于利。

Climate Variation Analysis of Qiqihar City and Its Impact on Agricultural Production Nearly 50 Years

According to monthly temperature and precipitation data of Qiqihar city nearly 50 years, the methods of Mann - Kendall, cumulative filter and anomaly analysis are adopted to analyze the temperature and precipitation variation on the different time scales. The results show that annual average temperature presents an upward trend overall, especially, since 1990 the pace and range of temperature increase significantly accelerate. At the same time, there is a big difference between Inter - annual change of precipitation, the annual precipitation generally presents a declining trend. However, the precipitation presents an upward trend in spring and winter and a declining trend in autumn and summer. Climatic change make various impact on agricultural production of Qiqihar City. For example, agriculture meteorological disaster increased, crops plant disease occurred and influence ag- gravates, the agricultural production cost increases, these makes the agricultural instability enhaneet, The impact on agricultural production of climatic change is more shortcoming than the advantage.