以炼油行业为例对石油化工行业碳减排进行情景设计与分析评价

提出了一种碳减排情景设计与分析评价模型，分别从需求和技术发展两个方面分析了石油化工行业碳减排潜力。结合碳减排成本、社会效益、环境效益、经济效益等因素，以炼油行业为例，对不同碳减排情景进行评估。结果表明，以2009年为基准，到2020年，能源结构优化对炼油行业碳减排影响较大，基准情景和强化情景下的碳排放分别比锁定情景增加1121.9、641.1万t；产业结构优化在基准情景和强化情景下的碳排放分别比锁定情景下增加79.7、95.4万t；技术进步对炼油行业碳减排效果明显，基准情景和强化情景下分别减排717.7、774.6万t；行业结构优化在基准情景和强化情景下分别减排453.4、604.5万t；到2020年炼油行业碳排放的总体呈增加趋势，减排压力巨大，要加大产业结构优化和节能减排技术的推广使用。

With Oil Refining Industry as an Example to Design and Analysis the Carbon Mitigation Potential Model of Petroleum Chemical Industry

A scenario analysis model was proposed to analyze and evaluate various carbon reduction scenarios of petrochemical industry from the point of demand and technology development. Besides, considering the cost of carbon emission reduction, social benefits, environmental benefits and economic benefits, different carbon reduction scenarios were evaluated. With oil refining industry as a case, it was found that the optimization of energy structure had huge influence on carbon emission reduction of oil refining industry, by which carbon emission would increase 11.219 and 16.029 Mt, respectively, under the basic scenario and strengthened scenario, compared with the locked scenario. By industrial structure optimization the carbon emissions would increase 79.7×10⁴ t and 95.4×10⁴ t under the basic scenario and strengthened scenario, respectively, compared with the locked scenario. Technological progress had significant effect on carbon emission reduction, which were717.7 and 774.6 Mt under the basic scenario and strengthened scenario, respectively. By oil refining industry optimization would carbon emission reductions were 453.4×10⁴ t and 604.5×10⁴ t in the basic scenario and strengthened scenario, respectively. By 2020, the carbon emission of oil refining industry would increase, thus the pressure of carbon reduction is enormous, so as the pace of oil refining industry optimization must be accelerated and more energy saving technology should be promoted.