基于ANP-GCDM模型的风电项目经济外部性评价

对风电项目进行科学有效地经济外部性评价是引导风电项目科学开发和可持续发展的重要环节,因此有必要建立合理的风电项目经济外部性评价模型并对其进行评价。运用网络层次分析法(ANP)和灰色聚类决策模型(GCDM)对风电项目经济外部性进行了评价。首先,构建风电项目经济外部性评价指标体系;其次,介绍了基于ANP的灰色聚类决策评价模型;最后,通过实例对风电项目经济外部性进行了评价。算例分析验证了该模型的有效性和实用性。结果表明:风电项目具有很强的经济外部性,其正外部性在很大程度上优于负外部性;正外部性显著的主要原因来自于环境效益,负外部性主要来自于市场影响,环境效益和市场影响是影响风电项目经济外部性的最主要因素。

Evaluation on economic externality of wind power project based on ANP-GCDM

Scientific and effective evaluation on the economic externality of wind power project is very important for the scientific exploitation and sustainable development of wind power project.Therefore a reasonable economic externality evaluation needs to be performed.Based on the analysis network process(ANP) and grey clustering decision-making model(GCDM),a model of economic externality evaluation applied to wind power project is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the economic externality evaluation index system of wind power project is built.Secondly,the basic theory of ANP-GCDM is introduced.Finally,the proposed economic externality evaluation method is applied to an example of a wind power project.The example has verified the effectiveness and practicality of this model.The result shows that the economic externality of wind power project is dominant,and the positive externality largely exceeds the negative part;the significant positive externality mainly results from the environmental benefit,while the negative externality results from the market impact.The environmental benefit and market impact are the most important factors of economic externality of wind power project.