昆明地区降水、气温及极端天气的长期变化趋势

利用昆明气象站1951年-2013年逐日气温和降水资料,采用线性趋势、Sen斜率估计、Mann-Kendall等方法分析昆明降水、气温和极端天气的变化特征与趋势,结果表明:1951年-2013年间,1994是年平均气温突变点;年平均气温和四季气温均呈升温趋势;年降水量和夏、秋两季降水量呈下降趋势,春、冬两季降水呈上升趋势,但趋势并不显著;在极端降水指数中,持续湿期呈下降趋势,持续干期和一日最大降水量呈上升趋势,趋势并不显著;在极端温度指数中,热日持续指数、暖夜指数及暖昼指数均呈显著上升趋势,冷日持续指数、冷夜指数及冷日指数均呈显著下降趋势。

Long-term trend analysis of precipitation, temperature and extreme weather in Kunming

Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of Kunming meteorological station in 1951-2013, the author used methods of linear trend, Sen slope estimation, Mann-Kendall methods to analyze the characteristics and trends of precipitation, temperature and extreme weather in Kunming. The results showed that, from 1951 to 2013, the average temperature mutation took place in 1994; Annual average temperature and the temperature of the four seasons showed a tendency of warming. Besides, it showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation, summer rainfall and autumn rainfall, while spring rainfall and winter rainfall showed an upward trend, but the trend was not significant; In the extreme precipitation index, Consecutive wet days showed a downward trend, consecutive dry days and maximum 1-day precipitation amount had a upward trend, but the trend was not significant. In the extreme temperature index, Warm spell duration indicator ,Warm nights and Warm days increased significantly, while cold spell duration indicator, cool nights and cool days reduced significantly.