一个改进的随机动力学水平衡模型及其应用研究Ⅱ。应用

本文用黄土高原长武农业生态试验站的冬小麦长期定位试验资料对改进的随机动力学水平衡模型进行了准确性检验。从模型对参数反映的敏感性分析和模型计算值与数值模型WAVES的比较，以及模型对黄土区旱作高生产力的水分环境效应的评价结果，均证明改进的随机动力学水平衡模型能比较准确地预测一定生产力水平、特定生态系统平衡体系水均衡要素的定量分配和土壤含水量的动态变化。

A modified stochastic-dynamic water balance model and its application

The validity of the modified stochastic-dynamic water balance model is verified by longterm experimental data of winter wheat field in loess plateau. The sensitivity analysis shows that the model varies steadily and continuously with the soil, plant cover and meteorological parameters. In comparisons with the WAVES model and Eagleson model this modified model possesses the advantages of precisely forecasting the quantitative allocation of the mean water balance components in hydrological ecosystem of loess plateau and dynamic variation process of soil moisture. It can be applied to evaluate the water environment effect of high productivity dry farming in loess plateau.