灰色Verhulst模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用

灰色系统预测模型用于中长期负荷预测是一种有效的方法。但是，当负荷按照“S”型曲线增长或增长处于饱和阶段时，采用灰色模型进行负荷预测的误差较大，预测精度不能满足实际要求。将灰色Verhulst模型引入到负荷预测中，可以很好地解决这个问题。作者通过典型的实例介绍了灰色Verhulst模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用。结果表明，此模型在负荷预测中是适用的，尤其对于负荷按“S”型曲线增长的情况，不但具有较高的预测精度，同时保留了灰色预测方法的优势和特点。

APPLICATION OF GREY VERHULST MODEL IN MIDDLE AND LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING

The grey system model is a kind of efficient method for long-term load forecasting. However, this method is unperfect, when the load increases according to the curve with shape of alphabet S or the increment of load is in the saturation stage, the load forecasting error by grey system model will be bigger and the forecasting results cannot be accepted in practical application. To solve this problem the grey Verhulst model is introduced into the field of load forecasting and through typical practical examples the application of grey Verhulst model in middle- and long-term load forecasting is presented. The forecasting results show that the grey Verhulst model is applicable, especially, to the circumstance that the load increases according to the curve with shape of alphabet S not only higher forecasting accuracy can be obtained, but also the superiority and the features of grey system model can be reserved.