| 淮安市用水指标与城市化指标关联性分析及用水潜力预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 华佳,柏双友,李治阳,周宏仓. 淮安市用水指标与城市化指标关联性分析及用水潜力预测[J]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2018, 16(4): 257-264 |
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| 作者姓名： | 华佳 柏双友 李治阳 周宏仓 |
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| 作者单位： | 无锡环境科学与工程研究中心;南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金项目（2014M56168）；江苏省博士后科研资助计划项目（1301066C）；江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目（2017SJB0887） |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究淮安市用水潜力和水资源人口承载力,本文在确立该市城市化指标和用水指标的基础上,利用灰色关联法对二者的相互关系进行了分析;然后通过人均需水量多元回归预测模型对该市的用水潜力进行了预测,并进一步计算出其对应的水资源人口承载力。结果表明,淮安市2020年人均需水量应控制在562m3/人·年左右,人口控制在569万人左右。本文对苏北乃至全省节水型城市的建设都具有现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 淮安市 城市化 用水指标 灰色关联分析 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-05-05 |
Correlation analysis of water consumption with urbanization and water demand prediction of Huaian city |
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| HUA Ji,BAI Shuangyou,LI Zhiyang and ZHOU Hongcang. Correlation analysis of water consumption with urbanization and water demand prediction of Huaian city[J]. Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 2018, 16(4): 257-264 |
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| Authors: | HUA Ji BAI Shuangyou LI Zhiyang ZHOU Hongcang |
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| Affiliation: | Wuxi Research Center for Environmental Science and Engineering, Wuxi 214153, China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Wuxi Research Center for Environmental Science and Engineering, Wuxi 214153, China,Wuxi Research Center for Environmental Science and Engineering, Wuxi 214153, China and School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to investigate the water use potential and population-carrying capacity of Huaian city, water consumption index and urbanization index were established in this study, and the relationship between them was analyzed by using grey correlation method. Furthermore, a water demand prediction model was presented by using multiple regression analysis method, and the population-carrying capacity of water resources was also calculated. The results show that the water consumption of Huaian city should be controlled under 562 m3 per person per year and population under 5.69 million by 2020. Therefore, this re-search has the practical meaning to build up a water-saving city in northern Jiangsu area as well as the whole province. |
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| Keywords: | Huaian city urbanization water consumption index grey relational analysis prediction |
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