Parameter Sensitivity and Importance Measures in Nonlinear Finite Element Reliability Analysis

Finite element reliability methods allow the analyst to define material, load, and geometry parameters as random variables to represent uncertainties in these model parameters. Approximate probabilistic analysis methods produce estimates of the response variance/covariances, probabilities of exceeding specified structural performance thresholds, and parameter importance measures. A necessary ingredient for such analysis is consistent, efficient, and accurate algorithms for computing finite element response sensitivities. In this paper, unified response sensitivity equations with respect to material, load, and geometry parameters are developed for the time- and space-discretized finite element model. The sensitivities with respect to nodal coordinates and global shape parameters in the presence of material and geometric nonlinearities represent an extension of previous work. Practical computer implementation issues are emphasized. The equations are implemented in the comprehensive, open-source, object-oriented finite element software OpenSees. Importance measures from reliability analysis, employing the sensitivity results, are presented to enable the investigation of the relative importance of uncertainty in the parameters of a finite element model. Two example applications demonstrate that the variability in nodal coordinates of a structure can be a significant source of uncertainty along with that in key material and load parameters.