跨流域长距离调水工程的风险及对策

采用系统和风险分析理论,从水文、建筑物、经济、政策、环境和社会等方面分析了跨流域长距离调水工程系统的风险因子及影响方式,提出调水工程风险因子分类和分级的原则,对调水工程建设和运行过程中的各类风险进行了初步的风险评价。提出了减小或转移各类风险的措施,尤其强调了非工程措施在提高工程运行可靠性和减小系统失效概率中的作用,为建立调水工程风险管理模型提供参考。

Risk and countermeasures of across river basins and long distance water transfer project

Using system theory and risk analysis, risk factors and their impacts on long distance water transfer project were discussed from hydrology, structures, economics, policy, environment and society. Principle of risk classification and grade was put forward. Risk estimation during constructing and running of water transfer project was proceeded. Finally the measures of risk mitigation and shift were proposed. It was emphasized that non-structure measures have an important role both increasing running reliability of the project and reducing failure probability. Risk analysis will be helpful to establish project risk management model