海南岛土地利用及产水量时空变化模拟EI北大核心CSCD

采用InVEST模型的产水模块研究海南岛1995—2015年的产水量时空变化,同时基于FLUS模型利用1995年与2015年两期的土地利用数据及自然、交通和社会因子,模拟2035年海南岛不同情景的土地利用变化及其对产水功能的影响。结果表明:1995—2015年海南岛城镇化加剧导致建设用地增加,增加的建设用地主要来源于林地和耕地的转换;1995—2015年海南岛产水量处于增长状态,产水深度总体呈现出东北部高、西南部低的空间分布格局;2035年自然发展情景下海南岛仍延续快速城镇化的发展速度,建设用地将增加36.7%,由此导致海南岛产水量较2015年增长0.67%;生态空间保护情景下的产水量增长率为-0.21%,实施生态保护措施可以很好地抑制产水量的增加,能够降低洪涝风险,保障海南岛生态系统产水功能。

Simulation of temporal and spatial changes of land use and water yield in Hainan Island

The water production module of InVEST model was used to study the temporal and spatial changes of water yield in Hainan Island from 1995 to 2015. At the same time, the land use data in 1995 and 2015 and natural, traffic and social factors were used to simulate the land use changes under different scenarios of Hainan Island in 2035 and their impact on water production function based on the FLUS model. The results showed that the intensification of urbanization in Hainan Island from 1995 to 2015 led to the increase of construction land, which mainly came from the conversion of forest land and cultivated land. From 1995 to 2015, the water yield of Hainan Island was increasing, and the water yield depth showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest. Under the natural development scenario, Hainan Island will continue the development speed of rapid urbanization in 2035, and the construction land will increase by 36. 7%, resulting in an increase of water production of Hainan Island by 0. 67% compared with 2015. The growth rate of water yield under ecological protection scenario is -0. 21%. The implementation of ecological protection measures can inhibit the increase of water yield well, reduce the risk of flood and ensure the water production function of island ecosystem.