A Bayesian approach to design of adaptive multi-model inferential sensors with application in oil sand industry

In the context of process industries, online monitoring of quality variables is often restricted by inadequacy of measurement techniques or low reliability of measuring devices. Therefore, there has been a growing interest in the development of inferential sensors to provide frequent online estimates of key process variables on the basis of their correlation with real-time process measurements. Representation of multi-modal processes is one of the challenging issues that may arise in the design of inferential sensors. In this paper, Bayesian procedures for the development and implementation of adaptive multi-model inferential sensors are presented. It is shown that the application of a Bayesian scheme allows for accommodating the overlapping operating modes and facilitating the inclusion of prior knowledge. The effectiveness of the proposed procedures are first demonstrated through a simulation case study. The efficacy of the method is further highlighted by a successful industrial application of an adaptive multi-model inferential sensor designed for real-time monitoring of a key quality variable in an oil sands processing unit.