| 基于状态转移矩阵的调度操作事故评级方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘雪飞1,李江南1,林子钊1,吴爽2,林志贤1,邹志勇1,何晓峰1,徐欣3. 基于状态转移矩阵的调度操作事故评级方法[J]. 陕西电力, 2020, 0(7): 106-111 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘雪飞1 李江南1 林子钊1 吴爽2 林志贤1 邹志勇1 何晓峰1 徐欣3 |
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| 作者单位： | （1. 深圳供电局有限公司，广东 深圳 518001； 2. 南瑞集团有限公司，江苏 南京 211106；3. 东南大学，江苏 南京 210096） |
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| 摘 要： | 为定性分析调度操作过程的危急程度，推动调度操作风险评估的工程应用，提出了基于状态转移矩阵的调度操作事故评级方法。综合考虑每一步操作可能发生的状态及后果，通过状态转移矩阵模拟操作过程，并以中国南方电网电力事故等级划分标准为风险等级评价基础，分别对调度操作状态后果进行等级划分、概率整合，最后得到整个过程的失败后果评价。通过实际案例详细介绍了该后果评级方法的具体流程，并验证了该评级技术的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 事故评级 调度操作 状态转移矩阵 概率整合 |
Accident Rating Method of Dispatching Operation Based on State Transition Matrix |
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| LIU Xuefei1,LI Jiangnan1,LIN Zizhao1,WU Shuang2,LIN Zhixian1,ZOU Zhiyong1,HE Xiaofeng1,XU Xin3. Accident Rating Method of Dispatching Operation Based on State Transition Matrix[J]. Shanxi Electric Power, 2020, 0(7): 106-111 |
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| Authors: | LIU Xuefei1 LI Jiangnan1 LIN Zizhao1 WU Shuang2 LIN Zhixian1 ZOU Zhiyong1 HE Xiaofeng1 XU Xin3 |
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| Affiliation: | （1. Shenzhen Power Supply Limited Company，Shenzhen 518001，China；2. NARI Group Corporation，Nanjing 211106，China 3. School of Electrical Engineering，Southeast University， Nanjing 210096，China） |
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| Abstract: | In order to qualitatively analyze the criticality of dispatching operation process and promote the engineering application of dispatching operation risk assessment，an accident rating method of the dispatching operation is proposed based on state transition matrix. Considering the state and consequences of each step of operation， the state transition matrix is used to simulate the operation process. Then，the power grid accident classification standard of China Southern Power Grid is used as the risk level evaluation basis，and the dispatching operation state consequences are graded and integrated by probability for failure consequences evaluation of entire process. The specific process of the consequence rating technology is described in detail through the actual case， the effectiveness of rating technology is verified. |
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| Keywords: | accident rating dispatching operation state transition matrix probabilistic integration |
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