基于优化正交偏最小二乘法的变电站全寿命周期成本预测分析

变电站开展全寿命周期成本（LCC）管理，有利于提升电网资产管理效率，而如何准确测算LCC费用是LCC管理的难点。构建了一个基于正交偏最小二乘法（OPLS）变电站的LCC费用预测模型，并通过变量投影重要性进一步优化预测模型。结果显示优化OPLS预测模型的精度有所提升，且通过考察年故障时间、初期投资、年故障中断功率、单位赔偿费用、电价、年平均故障修复率、物理寿命周期、运维率、年平均修复时间、年平均故障修复成本和通货膨胀率等关键影响因子，就可实现对变电站LCC的高效估算。

Substation Life Cycle Cost Prediction Model Based on Optimized Orthogonal Partial Least Squares

The implementation of full life cycle cost （LCC） management in substations is conducive to improving the efficiency of grid asset management. How to accurately measure the LCC cost is the difficulty in LCC management. A LCC cost forecasting model based on orthogonal partial least squares （OPLS） substation is constructed and further optimized by variable projection importance. The results show that the accuracy of OPLS forecasting model is improved， and the high efficiency estimation of LCC can be realized by examining key factors such as annual failure time， initial investment， annual failure interrupt power， unit compensation cost， electricity price， annual average failure repair rate， physical life cycle， operation dimension， annual average repair time， annual average failure repair cost and inflation rate.