基于经验模式分解与因素影响的负荷分析方法

提高预测精度需要准确把握负荷变化规律和环境因素影响，但目前的分析方法多存在依赖主观经验，且对因素影响分析不深入的问题。为此，提出一种基于经验模式分解(empirical mode decomposition，EMD)和因素影响的负荷分析新方法。利用EMD的自适应性，自动地将目标负荷序列分解为若干个独立的内在模式，可克服依赖主观经验的缺点。再利用多个指标从不同方面分析它们的规律特性。通过各分量与各影响因素的相关分析，深入挖掘各因素对各分量的影响情况。归纳出构成负荷的不同成分，并详细论述其特性。实例研究说明该方法可很好地分析负荷特性及因素影响。

A Novel Approach for Load Analysis Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Influencing Factors

The improvement of load forecast precision needs to hold the variation pattern of the load sequence accurately, and fully understand the influences of environmental factors. However, most of the present load analyzing methods rely on subjective experience and the influence factors are not analysed more deeply. To counter the above-mentioned shortages, a novel approach for load analysis was presented based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and influencing factors. The load sequence was decomposed into several intrinsic modes intuitive, the local characteristic information of load can be reflected by them respective. And several measures were adopted to analyze the regularity of the intrinsic modes. Based on the above procedures, the correlations between the intrinsic modes and environmental factors were studied to mine the degree of different factor influence on the modes. The components of the load were concluded with their characteristics discussed in detail. A case studied shows that with the proposed method the characteristics and influential factors of load can be probed deeper.