基于灰色模型的滑坡变形预测

详细讨论了灰色模型GM（1，1）与基于权的一阶一元灰色预测模型pGM（1，1）的基本内容及建模过程，并成功地将两模型应用于三峡库区某滑坡水平位移监测的预测预报，相应地用MATLAB编写了灰色系统预测程序，便于实际应用,实践证明，灰色预测模型在滑坡预测预报中具有较高的应用价值．

Grey System Theory Model Based Landslide Deformation Forecasting

The basic content and modelling process of both the GM （1,1） gray model and the pGM （1,1） weight based oneorder-one-dimensional gray prediction model were discussed in detail. These two models were applied successfully to do horizonal shift monitoring and forecasting of a landslide in Three Gorges area. In order to get easy application in practice, these gray system theory forecasting programs were written in MATLAB. It has been proved by practice that the gray prediction model is of much more application value in landslide prediction.