2040年世界能源展望--埃克森美孚2016版预测报告简介

埃克森美孚公司2016年最新发布的《2040年世界能源展望》认为：2014–2040年（预测期）全球能源需求将增长26%，天然气将占增量的40%，2040年石油仍是第一大能源。北美洲在2020年前后将成为石油净出口地区。预测期内，全球运输部门的能源需求增长30%，主要来自非OECD国家；到2040年，电动车占全年新车销售比重将升至40%；车辆平均燃油消耗将从2014年的每百公里约9.41 L减少到2040年的约5.23 L。全球和中国的碳排放量预计在2030年前后达到峰值。

A Brief Introduction of ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy to 2040

This article mainly summarizes Exxon Mobil's2016editionofThe Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040:Global energy demand will increase 26 percent between 2014 and 2040, and natural gas is expected to meet about 40 percent of the growth in global energy needs. However, oil will remain the No. 1 source of fuel. China and India together are expected to account for almost half of the growth in global energy demand. North America is on pace to become a net oil exporter around 2020. Global energy demand from transportation is projected to rise by 30 percent, and practically all the growth will be in non-OECD nations. Sales of new hybrids are expected to jump from 2 percent of new-car sales in 2014 to above 40 percent by 2040, and average fuel consumption will decrease from 9.41 to about 5.23 L/100 km. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will peak around 2030, with China playing a significant role as its emissions also peak around 2030.