工业化、城市化及产业结构演进对土地财政依赖的影响——基于内地城市与香港比较的视角

利用案例比较方法,研究了工业化、城市化、产业结构演进以及房地产投资等因素对中国大陆四个经济发达城市和香港土地财政依赖的影响。主要研究发现如下：第一,内地发达城市地方政府土地财政依赖会因工业化水平、城市化水平和产业结构水平等因素的不同而不同,但这些因素只能部分解释土地财政依赖度的地区差异。第二,如果继续把房地产投资或房地产业作为国民经济发展的支柱,土地财政依赖就不会实现根本性的、绝对意义上的降低。第三,在中国大陆目前的土地制度结构下,只要地方政府可以直接操作土地出让,土地财政就不会自动彻底地消失,土地财政依赖将会长期存在。因此,治理土地财政依赖依然任重道远。

The Impact of Industrialization,Urbanization and Industrial Structure Evolution on the Dependence of Land-based Finance -Based on the Comparative Perspective of Mainland Cities and Hong Kong

Using the case-analysis method, this paper studies the upgrading of industrial structure and real estate investment how industrialization, urbanization, affect local government＇ s land-based finance dependence between the four cities in China mainland and Hong Kong. It finds that first, the local government＇ s land-based finance dependence can change with the progress of industrializa- tion, urbanization and the industrial structure, but these factors can only explain the regional differ- ences of land-based finance dependence partly; second, if the policy of regarding real estate invest- ment or real estate industry as a pillar industry of national economic development is not adjusted, the dependence of land-based finance will not realize a fundamental reduction ; third, in the current land system structure in mainland China, as long as the local government can manipulate land transfer di- rectly, the dependence of land-based finance will not completely disappear automatically, and it will exist for a long time. Therefore, we still have a long way to go before the dependence of land-based finance is treated effectively.