一种变结构动态贝叶斯网络的反导态势评估模型

为了实现在反导预警监视系统基础上的反导态势评估，通过对反导作战过程的分析，根据反导作战指挥的需要，提取了反导作战中的五个关键事件，以动态贝叶斯网络为基础，构建了以关键事件为驱动的变结构态势评估模型．利用Matlab软件对态势评估模型进行仿真验证．仿真结果表明，该模型能够随着反导战场的变化反映出战场态势的变化，其推理时间也能够满足评估实时性要求，可为指挥员提供指挥决策依据．

Assessment Model of Anti-missile Situation With Variable Structure Dynamic Bayesian Network

To achieve the assessment of anti-missile situation on the basis of anti-missile early-warning surveillance system, this paper extracts the five key events in the operation of anti-missile by analyzing the anti-mis- sile operating process, according to the demand of anti-missile operating command, and constructs an assessment model of variable structure situation driven by the key events, based on Dynamic Bayesian Network （DBN）. And the simulative tests on this situation assessment model are also performed by using Matlab software in this paper. Simulation results show that the assessment model can reflect the change of battle field situation as the anti-missile battle field changes and its reasoning time can also meet the requirement for real-time, thus offering a reason for commanders＇ command and making-decision.