电力市场环境下考虑风电预测误差的经济调度模型

提出了电力市场环境下考虑风电预测误差的电力系统经济调度模型。对于一定的风电预测值,运用Beta函数对实时可发出力的概率密度分布进行拟合,在考虑预测误差发生概率及其所导致的经济补偿费用基础上,得到统计意义上更为合理的经济调度模型。该模型建立在较为完善的电力市场环境下,计及了发电企业报价需要考虑到的温室气体排放权费用。仿真算例比较了考虑风电预测误差与否对市场出清电价、电网平均购电成本等运营指标的影响。结果表明,所提出的模型能够有效降低电网公司的运营成本,促进资源的优化配置。

An Economic Dispatching Model Considering Wind Power Forecast Errors in Electricity Market Environment

An economic dispatching model of the power system considering wind power forecast error in the electricity market environment is developed.For a certain wind power forecast value,a Beta function is used to fit the probability density distribution of the real-time available output power.Considering the probability of the forecast error and the economic compensation cost they caused,a more reasonable dispatching model in statistics is proposed.The model is based on the more sound electricity market environment,and the cost of greenhouse gas emission right that needs to be considered by the power company is taken into account.A simulation case compares the effects of the wind power forecast errors on the market clearing price and average purchasing cost of the power grid.The result shows that the proposed model can effectively reduce the operating cost of the power company,and promote the optimal allocation of resources.