模拟最大熵法及其在水库泄洪风险计算中的应用

快速简便的风险计算方法是大型复杂工程系统风险分析的重要前提。基于随机模拟和最大熵方法的优点,提出了风险计算的模拟最大熵法（SMEM）,并建立了相应的数学模型;将该方法应用于水库工程的泄洪风险计算,并对其计算结果进行了验证、分析和比较。结果表明,在信息相同的条件下,此方法不但可以充分利用已知条件,得到待求的概率分布及风险值,而且在计算速度上也比随机模拟方法（Monte-Carlo）快20多倍,大大提高了计算速度,为风险的计算提供了一个新的思路。

Simulate Maximum Entropy Method and its application in reservoir Flood risk Calculation

It is an important prerequisite in risk analysis of large-scale complex engineering systems that the risk calculation is fast and easy. Based on the advantages of stochastic simulation and the maximum entropy method, Simulate Maximum Entropy Method (SMEM)is presented to calculate the risk, and the corresponding mathematical model is established; the method is applied to the calculation of reservoir flood risk and its calculation results is validated, analyzed and compared, the results show that this method can make full use of known information under the same conditions and get the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value. It's faster than the stochastic simulation method (Monte-Carlo) 20 times, not only greatly improve the speed, but also provides a new way of thinking for the calculation of risk.