基于可能-满意度方法的特大型矿井开采规模研究

特大型矿井持续稳定高效生产的关键技术之一是其开采规模的合理确定．以济三煤矿为例，在分析大量翔实数据的基础上，把可能一满意度方法应用到采矿系统工程之中，从“需要”和“可能”2个角度对济三煤矿开采规模进行了多目标预测．对14个单因素进行可能一满意度分析并对部分因素进行了并合，得出开采规模的总可能一满意度；最后得出济三煤矿合理开采规模及其所依赖的条件．结果表明：济三煤矿要达到1000万t／a的目标，必须提高过断层的速度和最大限度地解放村庄压滞的煤炭．济三煤矿在目前的开采技术条件下，开采规模以600万t／a最为合理，此时可能一满意度为0．93．

Study of Rational Mining Capacity in Super-Huge Coal Mine Based on Possibility-Satisfiability Method

The rational decision of mining capacity is one of the key technologies in super-huge coal mine with durative, steady and high efficiency production. Taking Jisan coal mine for example, based on the analysis of data, the mining capacity of Jisan coal mine was predicted multiobjectively using the possibility-atisfiability method from the demand and possibility. 14 factors were analyzed with possibility-satisfiability method and combined partly. The rational mining capacity and its depending conditions of Jisan coal mine were obtained. The results show that the velocity of across faults should be increased and the coal seam occupied by villages should be released to the maximum to achieve the mining capacity of 1 000 ten thousand t/a for Jisan coal mine. On the present condition of mining technology of it, 600 ten thousand t/a is the most rational mining capacity, and the possibility-satisfiability degree is 0.93.