扇贝贮藏货架期预测模型的建立与评价

以扇贝为研究对象，采用不同温度283、278、273、271.8 K（10、5、0、－1.2 ℃）的贮藏环境对扇贝进行保鲜处理，探讨其在保鲜过程中挥发性盐基氮（volatile basic nitrogen，TVB-N）含量、菌落总数、鲜度指标K值与感官指标的相关性，建立TVB-N含量、菌落总数以及贮藏温度和时间的动力学模型和扇贝保鲜货架期的预测模型。结果表明：一级化学反应动力学模型和Arrhenius方程对TVB-N含量、菌落总数、K值的变化具有较高的模拟精度（R2＞0.9）。可根据对扇贝在不同温度条件下贮藏的TVB-N含量、菌落总数、K值变化规律的研究对扇贝剩余货架期进行预测，经验证扇贝的货架期预测模型的相对误差在10%以内。

Establishment and Evaluation of Shelf-Life Prediction Model for Scallops

The correlations of sensory evaluation scores with volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), total number of colonies and
the freshness indicator K value were analyzed for scallops stored at different temperatures (10, 5, 0 and -1.2 ℃). Further
studies were carried out to establish kinetics models for the three parameters as a function of storage temperature and time
and shelf-life prediction models based on each of these parameters. The experimental results showed that first-order kinetics
model and Arrhenius equation could describe TVB-N, total colony number and K value with high accuracy (R2 > 0.9). All
these parameters were useful to predict the shelf-life of scallops stored at different temperatures. It was validated that the
relative error of prediction was less than 10%.