| 南京市商品住宅市场预警实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 裘建国,袁翠华,郭宏定. 南京市商品住宅市场预警实证研究[J]. 建筑经济, 2006, 0(4) |
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| 作者姓名： | 裘建国 袁翠华 郭宏定 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学建设与房地产系 南京210096(裘建国，袁翠华)，南京市房产局 南京210029(郭宏定) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文首先利用商品住宅市场的系统动力学模型对南京市商品住宅市场进行实证研究,然后预测了2005-2010年南京市商品住宅市场的状况,再此基础上进行综合预警分析.最后,本文对模型中的7个政策因素进行灵敏度分析,以期达到政策调控效果的最大化.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 预警 灵敏度分析 政策调控 |
Early Warning Demonstration Research For Nanjing Dwelling House Market |
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| QIU Jian-guo,YUAN Cui-hua,GUO Hong-ding. Early Warning Demonstration Research For Nanjing Dwelling House Market[J]. Construction Economy, 2006, 0(4) |
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| Authors: | QIU Jian-guo YUAN Cui-hua GUO Hong-ding |
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| Affiliation: | QIU Jian-guo YUAN Cui-hua GUO Hong-ding |
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| Abstract: | This paper firstly carries out demonstration research based on system dynamics model for dwelling house market, then forecasts status of nanjing dwelling house market from 2005 to 2010 and comprehensive early warning analysis was done subsequently. Finally in order to obtain the maximal effect of policy control, this paper puts up the sensitive analysis of seven policy factors included in the model. |
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| Keywords: | system dynamics early warning sensitive analysis policy control |
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