环太湖各水资源分区入出湖水量及贡献分析

基于1986—2018年环太湖入出湖水量、降水量、引排水量资料，采用TFPW-MK趋势检验法分析了环太湖各水资源分区年入出湖水量及太湖换水周期的变化特征，并讨论了湖西区年入湖水量以及望虞河和太浦河年出湖水量显著变化的影响因素。结果表明:环太湖年入出湖水量、净入湖水量与各水资源分区年入出湖水量及占比呈现不同的变化趋势；望虞河年入湖水量、出湖水量、入湖水量占比及湖西区出湖水量占比的年际变化最显著；不同年代湖西区年入湖水量及占比均值为各分区最大，太浦河在20世纪80年代后年出湖水量及占比均值为各分区最大；湖西区入湖水量增长贡献率最大，浙西区出湖水量增长贡献率最大；降雨对湖西区年入湖水量及望虞河、太浦河年出湖水量的年际波动影响均较大；太湖换水周期呈递减趋势，从20世纪80年代平均200 d减小为21世纪10年代的154 d。

Analysis on inflow and outflow of water resources zones around Taihu Lake and its contribution

Based on the data of inflow and outflow, precipitation, and water diversion of Taihu Lake from 1986 to 2018, the TFPW-MK trend test method and other statistical methods were used to analyze the variation characteristics of inflow and outflow water volume of water resources zones around the Taihu Lake and the water exchange period of Taihu Lake. The influence factors of significant changes of annual inflow water volume of Huxi Zone and annual outflow water volume of Wangyu River and Taipu River were discussed. The results show that the annual water inflow and outflow, net water inflow and the annual water inflow and outflow of each water resources zone and its proportion show different trends. The interannual variations of the annual inflow and outflow water volume and proportion of inflow of Wangyu River and proportion of outflow of Huxi Zone are the most significant. The average annual inflow and proportion of the Huxi Zone was the largest in the water resources zones in different decades, and the average annual outflow and its proportion of Taipu River after 1980 s was the largest. Huxi Zone has the largest contribution rate to the growth of water inflow, and Zhexi Zone has the largest contribution rate to the growth of water outflow. Rainfall has great influence on the interannual fluctuation of inflow water volume of Huxi Zone and outflow water volume of Wangyu River and Taipu River. The average water exchange period of Taihu Lake showed a decreasing trend, which decreased from 200 d in 1980 s to 154 d in 2010 s.