计及风光系统出力随机性的电压风险评估

针对风力发电和光伏发电并网后改变系统潮流大小和方向并对电网电压产生影响的问题,建立了风电和光伏出力概率模型,并使用Monte Carlo方法模拟了实际风速和光照辐照强度的概率分布区间,进而计算了风电和光伏的随机出力,并结合风险理论考虑风光系统出力随机性对电网电压风险的影响。以IEEERTS79标准测试系统为例,评估了风光系统接入容量及风光发电系统容量配置比例对电网电压风险的影响。算例的评估结果可为风光系统接入容量大小和风光发电系统容量配置比例提供参考。

Voltage Risk Assessment of Grid Considering Randomness of Wind-solar System Output

The random, intermittent and volatility characteristics of wind power generation and photovoltaic generation, which make the size and direction of original power flow changes when connected with grid, has impact on the grid voltage risk. Firstly, the output probability model of wind and photovoltaic generation is established. And Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the probability distribution of real wind speed and light irradiating intensity. Then the random output of wind-solar generation system is calculated. At the same time, the influence of wind-solar system on the risk of grid voltage is considered by combining risk theory. Finally, taking IEEE-RTS79 standard test system as an example, the influence of the capacity size and the ratio of wind-solar system on the risk of grid voltage is evaluated. Example results provide reference for the capacity size and the ratio of wind-solar system when connecting electric grid.