| 基于灰色动态模型群的济宁市需水量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁娜,宋云峰,王雅欣,冯忠伦,徐建,张帅,林洪孝. 基于灰色动态模型群的济宁市需水量预测[J]. 水电能源科学, 2014, 32(7): 33-36 |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁娜 宋云峰 王雅欣 冯忠伦 徐建 张帅 林洪孝 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东农业大学 水利土木工程学院， 山东 泰安 271018;泰安市水文局， 山东 泰安 271001;山东农业大学 水利土木工程学院， 山东 泰安 271018;山东农业大学 水利土木工程学院， 山东 泰安 271018;山东农业大学 水利土木工程学院， 山东 泰安 271018;山东农业大学 水利土木工程学院， 山东 泰安 271018;山东农业大学 水利土木工程学院， 山东 泰安 271018 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部国际合作项目（2007DFB70200） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对以往单一GM(1,1)模型建立过程中难以克服不稳定因素对预测结果的影响,提出根据不同时间段建立多个GM(1,1)模型,基于济宁市2001~2011年用水量数据,采用灰色动态模型群对济宁市2011~2020年需水量进行预测。结果表明,济宁市2011年用水量为26.76×108 m3,到2015年需水量增至29.9×108 m3,2020年增至33.9×108 m3,呈增长趋势,这与济宁市社会经济发展态势相吻合,可见灰色动态模型群用于需水量预测可行、有效。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色动态模型群； 需水量； 预测； 济宁市 |
Water Demand Forecasting of Jining City Based on Gray Dynamic Model Groups |
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| YUAN N,SONG Yunfeng,WANG Yaxin,FENG Zhonglun,XU Jian,ZHANG Shuai and LIN Hongxiao. Water Demand Forecasting of Jining City Based on Gray Dynamic Model Groups[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2014, 32(7): 33-36 |
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| Authors: | YUAN N SONG Yunfeng WANG Yaxin FENG Zhonglun XU Jian ZHANG Shuai LIN Hongxiao |
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| Affiliation: | College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China;Taian Hydrographic Service, Taian 271001, China;College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China;College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China;College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China;College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China;College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the problem that the previous single GM (1,1) model is difficult to overcome the impact of instability factors on forecasting results, this paper proposes the establishment of many GM (1,1) models in terms of different time periods. Based on the water consumption data of Jining from 2001 to 2011, gray dynamic model groups are used to forecast water demand of Jining City from 2011 to 2020. The results show that water consumption of Jining in 2011 is 26.76×108m3; the water demand will increase to 29.9×108m3 in 2015 and 33.9×108m3 in 2020, respectively. It appears upward trend, which is consistent with the socio-economic development situation in Jining City. So, application of gray dynamic model groups in water demand forecasting is feasible and effective. |
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| Keywords: | gray dynamic model groups water demand prediction Jining City |
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