| 前河流域上游径流的时间变化特征及变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马妍博,袁鹏,李保琦. 前河流域上游径流的时间变化特征及变化趋势分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2013, 31(9): 16-19 |
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| 作者姓名： | 马妍博 袁鹏 李保琦 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学 水利水电学院， 四川 成都 610065;四川大学 水利水电学院， 四川 成都 610065; 四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 四川 成都 610065;四川大学 水利水电学院， 四川 成都 610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了给前河流域水资源合理开发利用提供参考依据，基于前河上游土黄水文站1959～2008年实测径流序列资料，运用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、累积距平和线性倾向估计等方法进行了径流特征分析。结果表明，春季和秋季径流量变化均呈减少趋势，夏季则呈增加趋势，在四季的综合影响下，年径流量呈现出一定程度的减少趋势；同时表现出的周期性变化特征为5年左右的周期震荡最明显，14年左右的周期震荡规律较稳定，且呈“偏多—偏少”的交替规律。
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| 关 键 词： | 前河； Mann-Kendall突变检验； Morlet小波分析； 趋势分析； 径流特征分析 |
Seasonal Variation Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Runoff in Upper Reaches of Qianhe River Basin |
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| MA Yanbo,YUAN Peng and LI Baoqi. Seasonal Variation Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Runoff in Upper Reaches of Qianhe River Basin[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2013, 31(9): 16-19 |
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| Authors: | MA Yanbo YUAN Peng LI Baoqi |
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| Affiliation: | College of Water Resource and Hydropower Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;College of Water Resource and Hydropower Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountian River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China;College of Water Resource and Hydropower Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to provide a reference for development and utilization of water resources in Qianhe river basin, according to observed runoff data of Tuhuang hydrologic station in the upper reaches of Qianhe river from 1959 to 2008, Morlet wavelet transform method, Mann-Kendall test, accumulative anomaly and linear trend estimation are applied to analyze the annual runoff variation. The results show that the runoff in spring and autumn appears downward trend; runoff in summer appears upward trend; under the seasonal influence, the annual runoff appears downward trend; at the same time, it shows periodic variation; moreover, the period oscillation of 5 years is obvious and the cycle of 14 years is regular; it appears more or less variation alternately. |
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| Keywords: | Qianhe River Mann-Kendall test Morlet wavelet analysis trend analysis runoff variation analysis |
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