移动平均法中移动步长的确定

为选用移动平均法中最优移动步长n，利用计算机的计算功能，设计了一种较为精确地确定移动平均法中最优移动步长n的方法．根据实际问题先设定预测精度，通过调节移动步长n使实际值与预测值的误差率达到最小，则此时移动步长n为最优．最优移动步长可以提高移动平均法的预测精度．用同样的方法可以寻找2次或更多次移动平均法中的最优移动步长n．移动平均法中的移动步长n为最优，其预测值通过检验时，该模型可用于实际问题的短期预测．

Study on the Determination of the Moving Step Length in Moving Method of Mean

e forecasting precision with the method of moving average can be improved by the optimal moving step length n. The authors put forward a way to accurately get the optimal moving step length n with the aid of computer. The forecasting precision should be predefined based on the actual problem firstly, and the optimal step length n can be found by adjusting the value of n to make the error rate between actual value and forecasting value minimal. The same way can be used to find the value of n in the method of multi-time moving average. If the forecasting value of n passes the test, this model can be employed in short-time forecasting of actual problem.