| 基于灰色理论的供电系统负荷中长期预测模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁明友,肖先勇,杨洪耕,曾立渊,杨兵. 基于灰色理论的供电系统负荷中长期预测模型及其应用[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2002, 34(4): 121-123 |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁明友 肖先勇 杨洪耕 曾立渊 杨兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学,电气信息学院,四川,成都,610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于灰色理论的基本思想，从历史数据少、不考虑分布规律、变化趋势、运算简便的特点出发，提出了在电力市场运营模式下，县（区）级电力负荷的中长期预测模型，并对某供电局1997年到2000年的销售电量进行了预测，预测结果与各年度的实际集电量相比，最大误差小于0．7％。说明建立的预测模型完全适合于该供电系统的负荷预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 供电系统 中长期预测模型 灰色理论 电力市场 负荷预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-3087(2002)04-0121-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-10-11 |
The Grey Model of Middle-long Term Load Forecasting and its Applications in the Power Supplying Systems |
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| YUAN Ming-you,XIAO Xian-yong,YANG Hong-geng,ZENG Li-yuan,YANG Bing. The Grey Model of Middle-long Term Load Forecasting and its Applications in the Power Supplying Systems[J]. Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition), 2002, 34(4): 121-123 |
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| Authors: | YUAN Ming-you XIAO Xian-yong YANG Hong-geng ZENG Li-yuan YANG Bing |
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| Abstract: | Based on Grey Theory,a Grey Model of middle-long term load forecasting is described. And it is used to forecast the sale electric amount since 1997 to 2000. The maximum error between the forecasted outcome and the practical sale is less than 0.7%,which shows that the established model is completely adaptive to the power supplying systems. It is provided with the academic and practical significance? |
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| Keywords: | Grey Theory electric power market load forecasting model |
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