修正Hubbert模型及世界石油产量临界点预测

世界原油生产过程中长期有组织地限产已使产量曲线明显偏离了理想Hubbert曲线,具有"分段截头移位"特征。根据修正Hubbert模型,限产期内可以存在多个产量峰值,但对世界石油经济的影响仅是产量转向永久性递减的临界点。在全球石油终极可采储量3955×10⁸t的前提下,全球石油产量的临界点可能出现在2026-2032年,届时全球石油产量约为(46.86～65.82)×10⁸t/a,储量采出程度约为67.7%;若全球石油储量采用2910×10⁸t的保守估计,世界石油产量将可能在2013年前后出现全面递减。世界石油工业这一重大转折将对油公司的可持续发展提出严峻挑战。

Application of modified Hubbert Model to prediction the critical point of oil production in the world

The curve of the world oil production has been shifted from the idealized Hubbert curve since 1973, when the crude oil production was restricted organically by OPEC. The actual curve took on the characters of “partitioned, truncated and shifted”. According to the modified Hubbert Model, there might be multiple peak points of oil production during OPEC’s constraint action. So, the classical concept, “peak point”, would be dimmed on significance.It would be replaced by the critical point, on which the world oil production will be changed from plateau to permanent decline. The research suggested that the world ultimate recoverable reserves might be 395.5 billion tons,the turning point of the world oil production might arise during 2026-2032 period, and the oil production on the point would be about 4.69～6.58 billion tons per year,as well as the exploitation degree of reserves would be as high as 67.7%. If taking a more conservative estimation of 291 billion tons of total ultimate volume,then the milestone of oil production decline may arise in 2013. This will be a great baptism for the continual development of oil companies.