BT工程项目风险分析和分配研究

近年来,BT模式在基础设施建设中大量运用,由于BT项目和基础设施的本身特点,使得BT项目运作过程不确定性加大,风险增加。加强风险管控,风险责任分配是保证项目成功运行的关键。通过分析基础设施建设BT项目的风险因素,构建了风险指标体系和风险分配评价标准,在此基础上运用多属性离差最大化和熵权法原理,建立了BT项目风险分配模型。最后通过算例说明模型的运用。研究表明,模型有助于确定BT项目风险责任的分配顺序和风险承担程度。

Risk Analysis and Distribution for BT Project

In recent years,BT mode has been widely used in infrastructure projects. However,in view of the characteristics of BT project,uncertainty and risk exist in process of BT project. Therefore,strengthening risk control and responsibility distribution is key to keep project successful. In this paper, we build the risk index system and evaluation criteria of risk distribution by analyzing risk factors of BT infrastructure projects. Then making use of multiple attribute principle of maximum deviation and entropy weight method,we establish risk allocation model for the BT project. Finally an example of BT project illustrates the whole idea. The result shows the model greatly contributes to determining the allocation order of risk responsibility about BT project and the degree of risk exposure.