| 基于新安江模型的降雨不确定性传播 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘薇,任立良,徐静,刘晓帆.基于新安江模型的降雨不确定性传播[J].水资源保护,2009,25(6):33-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘薇 任立良 徐静 刘晓帆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210098
2. 南京大学水科学系,江苏,南京,210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项，教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目，教育部、国家外国专家局高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于模糊隶属度理论,结合蒙特卡罗方法,定量分析了降雨不确定性在新安江模型中的传播特性及其对流量过程的影响。用模糊隶属度函数表示降雨量的不确定性,用蒙特卡罗方法把3 h雨量随机解集为1 h数据,以表征降雨时程分布的不确定性影响。应用新安江模型对褒河流域进行径流模拟。结果表明,雨量量级大小的不确定性在降雨不确定性中占据主导位置,降雨时程分布的影响次之。
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| 关 键 词： | 降雨 不确定性 模糊隶属度函数 蒙特卡罗方法 新安江模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/11/30 0:00:00 |
Propagation of precipitation uncertainty through the Xinanjiang model |
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| LIU Wei,REN Li-liang,XU Jing,LIU Xiao-fan.Propagation of precipitation uncertainty through the Xinanjiang model[J].Water Resources Protection,2009,25(6):33-35. |
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| Authors: | LIU Wei REN Li-liang XU Jing LIU Xiao-fan |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Wei, REN Li-liang, XU Jing, LIU Xiao-fan (1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China ; 2. Department of Hydrosciences , Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China) |
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| Abstract: | The propagation of precipitation uncertainty through the Xinanjiang model and the effect on the discharge simulation were analyzed quantitatively based on the fuzzy membership grade theory and the Monte Carlo method. The fuzzy membership function was used to describe the uncertainty of precipitation magnitude, and the disaggregation of precipitation from three hours to one hour with the Monte Carlo method characterized the influence of uncertainty of the temporal-spatial distribution. The Xinanjiang model was applied to Baohe catchment for flood simulation. The results show that the effect of precipitation magnitude uncertainty was more significant than that of temporal-spatial distribution. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation uncertainty fuzzy membership function Monte Carlo method Xinanjiang model |
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