负荷预测线性回归分析法的模糊改进

针对中长期电力负荷预测中观测数据及负荷变化规律的模糊性 ,采用模糊集合论中三角模糊数的概念 ,对传统的负荷线性回归预测模型作了改进。此方法通过建立具有模糊回归参数和模糊相关变量的回归模型 ,由模糊观测数据预测出未来负荷值。通过算例 ,验证了改进的负荷预测模型更加适用于中长期电力负荷预测

Fuzzy improvement of linear regression analysis for load forecasting

Aiming at the fuzziness of observation data and load changing rule in long and medium term load forecasting, the traditional linear regression model for load forecasting was improved by using the concept of triangle fuzzy number in the fuzzy set theory. Through establishing regression model with fuzzy regression parameter and fuzzy related variants, the future load can be predicted based on historical fuzzy observation data. Through the compution example the improved load forecasting model was proved to be more suitable for long and medium term load forecasting.