| 上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾明,张雨凤,李琼芳,任锦亮,虞美秀,马俊超,鞠彬.上海市不同历时暴雨组合概率研究[J].水资源保护,2015,31(4):82-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾明 张雨凤 李琼芳 任锦亮 虞美秀 马俊超 鞠彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098; 河海大学国际河流研究所, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098; 河海大学国际河流研究所, 江苏 南京 210098,盐城市水利勘测设计研究院, 江苏 盐城 224000,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098; 河海大学国际河流研究所, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098; 河海大学国际河流研究所, 江苏 南京 210098,河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏 南京 210098; 河海大学国际河流研究所, 江苏 南京 210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171220)；国家科技支撑计划(2012BAB03B03)；水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001069,201101052) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于上海市徐家汇站1960—2011年的日降雨资料,分析上海市年最大1d和3d降水量年际变化和年代际变化特性;择优选择GH Copula函数构建了年最大1 d与3 d降水量的联合分布模型,并推算它们的同现重现期和组合风险概率。结果表明:年最大1 d和3 d降水随时间呈增加趋势,自20世纪70年代开始其均值随年代增加;年最大1 d和3 d设计暴雨同频遭遇风险率在75%~85%之间,且同现风险率随年最大1 d设计暴雨值增大而增加。在设计上海市防洪排涝标准时若考虑最大1 d和3 d降水量的遭遇组合,有利于提升防洪排涝能力,保障防洪安全。
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| 关 键 词： | 年最大1 d降水量 年最大3 d降雨量 暴雨频率 Copula函数 联合概率分布 同现风险率 上海市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/2/15 0:00:00 |
Study on probability for rainstorm combinations during different durations in Shanghai City |
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| ZENG Ming,ZHANG Yufeng,LI Qiongfang,REN Jinliang,YU Meixiu,MA Junchao and JU Bin.Study on probability for rainstorm combinations during different durations in Shanghai City[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(4):82-86. |
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| Authors: | ZENG Ming ZHANG Yufeng LI Qiongfang REN Jinliang YU Meixiu MA Junchao and JU Bin |
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| Affiliation: | College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of International River Research, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of International River Research, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,Yancheng Surveying and Design Institute of Water Resources, Yancheng 224000, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of International River Research, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of International River Research, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China and College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Institute of International River Research, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation at Xujiahui station from 1960 to 2011, interannual variation and interannual changing characteristics of annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall were analyzed. The Gumbel-Hougaard Copula function which was selected preferentially was used to build the joint distribution model of annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall, then the co-occurrence return periods and the risk probability were calculated. The result showed that the annual 1-day and 3-day maximum rainfall had an increasing trend with time passed by. In addition, since the 70s their mean values also increased with years. The encounter risk rate of annual 1-day and 3-day design storm rainfall under the same frequency ranged from 75% to 85%, and the co-occurrence risk rate increased with the increase in annual 1-day design storm rainfall. If people consider the joint probability distribution of annual 1-day and 3-day rainfall for designing the flood control and drainage standard for Shanghai, the capability of flood control and drainage will be improved and flood control safety will be guaranteed. |
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| Keywords: | annual 1-day maximum rainfall annual 3-day maximum rainfall rainstorm frequency Copula function joint probability distribution co-occurrence risk rate Shanghai City |
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