广义S 增长曲线预测油田含水率

增长曲线的增长过程中,其图形表现为像一条压扁的S形曲线,在油田勘探、开发、生产过程中,很多实际生产数据也呈现出S形的增长趋势。通过对目前普遍采用的6种S 增长曲线指标量增长率变化特征分析,推导出能够代表这6种增长曲线的广义S增长模型及其增长曲线,并从此模型特征出发建立了油田含水率预测模型。采用试差法对模型进行求解。通过实例分析表明,提出的广义S 增长模型可以用来预测油田含水率,指导水驱油田的开发。

Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water-Cut of Oilfield

The graph of growth curve in its growth process is normally characterized by an oblate shape like "S".A lot of field data got from oil exploration,exploitation and production also appear such a S-shape varied tendency.This paper presents the available six types of S-shape,analyzes their growth rate-varied patterns and deduces the generalized S-shape growth models and curves,followed by developing the oilfield water-cut forecast model the represents these six S-shape growth curves and making solutions with trial and error method.Case study indicates that the generalized S-shape growth model proposed in this paper can be applied to forecasting oilfield water-cut,being as a guide for development of water flood oilfields.