国外大石油公司上游投资趋势及策略研究

近年来石油公司面临着前所未有的挑战。通过分析埃克森美孚、英荷壳牌、BP、雪佛龙、道达尔和康菲6家国外大石油公司1998～2008年的年报数据可以看出,国外大石油公司上游投资规模不断增长,2008年平均投资比1998年增长约3倍。其中约80%的资金用于勘探开发,收购投资约占20%。但勘探活动本质上并没有大幅的增加,勘探投资绝对规模增长迅速主要是由于勘探服务的价格上涨。2008年国外大石油公司新增天然气储量占新增总储量的比重达到近年来的最高值,约59%,超过了原油,间接说明各大石油公司更加重视上游天然气业务,加大了天然气的勘探开发和收购投资。国外大石油公司在各地区的投资趋于分散化,立足于北美和欧洲地区,进一步重视在亚太、中东和非洲地区的发展。通过归纳总结,国外大石油公司的上游投资趋势及策略体现为:一方面通过勘探和收购获得新增储量,同时适时提高产量,以协调公司的长远利益与短期利益;另一方面,注重风险控制,促进资产多样化,为公司的长远战略发展奠定基础。建议我国石油公司应注重勘探和资产收购相结合,以确保储量增长;重视上游资产收购的风险控制;调整投资地区分布结构,进而增强自身在全球的地位和国际竞争力。

A Study on the Trends in Major Foreign Oil Companies' Upstream Investment and Their Tactics

In recent years,oil companies have faced unprecedented challenges.By analyzing the data in the 1998-2008 annual reports of ExxonMobil,Shell,BP,Chevron,Total and ConocoPhillips,we can see the sizes of investment of these companies in the upstream sector have expanded yearly.The average investment by these companies in 2008 increased 3-fold over 1998.About 80% of their investment was made in exploration and development with that in acquisition representing about 20%.Exploration activities,however,did not increase substantially.The rapid expansion of the absolute size of exploration investment was mainly due to the rise in the prices of exploration services.In 2008,the share of new gas reserves added by foreign major oil companies in total reserves added reached about 59%,the highest in recent years.This share was higher than that of crude oil,suggesting that these large oil companies placed higher value on upstream gas business and have increased their investment in natural gas exploration and development and in asset acquisition.Foreign major oil companies＇ investment has been increasingly scattered.Their focus is on North America and Europe and they have attached greater importance to their business development in the Asia Pacific region,the Middle East and Africa.To sum up,the trends in foreign major oil companies＇ upstream investment and their tactics are：on the one hand,they obtain new reserves by means of exploration and acquisition while properly raising their output in an effort to coordinate their long-term and near-term interests ;on the other hand,they place high value on risk control and strive to diversify assets to lay the groundwork for the development of their long-term development strategy.The authors of the article suggest domestic oil companies attach equal importance to exploration and asset acquisition to ensure the growth of reserves,pay attention to controlling risks in upstream asset acquisition and adjust the geographical distribution of their investment to strengthen their presence worldwide and their ability to compete in the international market.