| 应用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测河流水质 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱长军,卢军燕,郝振纯,张普,刘德东,周继红. 应用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测河流水质[J]. 河北工程大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 24(1): 45-47 |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱长军 卢军燕 郝振纯 张普 刘德东 周继红 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北工程大学,城建学院,河北,邯郸,056038;河海大学,水资源环境学院,江苏,南京,210098;郑州市交通学院,河南,郑州,450062;河海大学,水资源环境学院,江苏,南京,210098;河北工程大学,城建学院,河北,邯郸,056038 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金重大项目(49794030) |
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| 摘 要： | 由于常规GM(1,1)模型进行预测时,精度较高的仅是最近的几个数据,越往未来发展,该模型预测的精度也就越弱。针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,运用灰色系统理论,建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)河流水质预测模型,对该模型的精度以及误差进行了分析,并利用该模型对某地区河流的水质进行了预测。计算机实际模拟证明:灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型能够明显地提高预测精度,增加预测的可靠程度,从而实现河流水质的早期预测评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 水质预测 新陈代谢模型 灰色系统理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-9469（2007）01-0045-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-05 |
Application of information renewal GM(1,1) model in the prediction of water quality in the river |
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| ZHU Chang-jun,LU Jun-yan,HAO Zhen-chun,ZHANG Pu,LIU De-dong,ZHOU Ji-hong. Application of information renewal GM(1,1) model in the prediction of water quality in the river[J]. Journal of Hebei University of Engineering(Natural Science Edition), 2007, 24(1): 45-47 |
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| Authors: | ZHU Chang-jun LU Jun-yan HAO Zhen-chun ZHANG Pu LIU De-dong ZHOU Ji-hong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Urban Construction, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China; 2. College of Water Resources and Environment, Hehai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 3. Zhengzhou Jiaotong University, Zhengzhou 450062, China |
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| Abstract: | As ordinary GM(1,1) model is only useful for short-term prediction than medium and long-term.In view of the deficiency of the GM(1,1) model,an information renewal GM(1,1) predicting model of water quality is established.The modeling method and test and evaluation to the error precision of GM(1,1) are researched.The model is applied to predict some river quality.The results of simulation indicate that the information renewal GM(1,1) predicting model can obviously improve the precision of forecasting,increase the reliability of prediction.So it can do the early forecast and evaluation to pollutant concentration of river. |
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| Keywords: | water quality prediction information renewal model gray system theory |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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