岩溶隧道突水风险评价理论与方法及工程应用

 考虑地下工程地质条件的复杂性和风险本身的不确定性，以属性数学理论为基础，提出一种可实现定量评价的属性区间评价理论与方法，其核心在于风险指标的取值是一个区间，并提出适用于该理论的综合属性测度分析和属性识别分析方法，结合工程实例给出属性识别分析方法的采用原则。选取岩溶突涌水灾害的7个主要影响因素，构成突水风险评价的指标体系，建立相应的风险评价模型，并采用综合赋权法进行突水风险指标的权重分析。针对某一隧道段落的突涌水风险，采用建立的评价模型进行计算分析，并与现场情况和属性数学模型的评估结果作对比，验证该理论与方法的合理性及可行性，为地下工程灾害风险定量评价提供一种有效的方法和途径。

RISK EVALUATION THEORY AND METHOD OF WATER INRUSH IN KARST TUNNELS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

Considering the complexity of underground engineering geological conditions and the uncertainty of risk，a risk evaluation methodology was put forward to realize quantitative assessment based on attribute mathematical theory. The value of evaluation index is an interval rather than a certain value，which is the core of the proposed method differed with other methods. A new method and its applications were proposed for synthetic attribute measure analysis and attribute recognition with an engineering case. Seven major influencing factors of water inrush in karst areas were selected as the evaluation indices and the index system of water inrush risk assessment was constituted，and a corresponding evaluation model was established. Comprehensive assignment method was applied to analyze the weights of evaluation indices. The water inrush risk of one tunnel was evaluated by using the established model，and comparisons of the results derived from the proposed method and attribute mathematical method were made. The results indicate that the evaluation results are basically in a good agreement with the observed results，which verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The risk assessment methodology can provide a powerful tool for quantitative assessment of water inrush in karst tunnels.