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| Monte-Carlo法计算含缺陷油气输送管线的失效概率 | |
| 引用本文： | 董玉华,余大涛,高惠临.Monte-Carlo法计算含缺陷油气输送管线的失效概率[J].机械工程学报,2004,40(2):136-140. |
| 作者姓名： | 董玉华 余大涛 高惠临 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 石油大学机电工程学院,北京,102249 2. 中油集团公司管材研究所 3. 西安石油大学 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(50374056)，中油天然气集团公司中青年创新基金(2001CX37)资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 利用Monte-Carlo方法全面分析了裂纹深度、裂纹深长比、断裂韧度、屈服强度和输送压力等主要随机参数对含裂纹长输油气管线结构的失效概率的影响。利用故障树分析中的参数敏感性方法确定了随机参数的敏感性。计算结果表明,断裂韧度和裂纹深度对结构的失效概率影响较大,裂纹深长比对结构的失效概率也有重要影响。此外,还分析了焊接接头在不同的裂纹深度下,强度匹配对失效概率的影响,并还给出了管线在不同的失效模式下的年失效概率。 |
| 关 键 词： | 管线 失效概率 Monte-Carlo方法 敏感性分析 强度匹配 失效模式 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年12月18 |
ESTIMATION OF FAILURE PROBABILITY OF OIL AND GAS PIPELINE WITH DEFECTS BY MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION |
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| Dong Yuhua.ESTIMATION OF FAILURE PROBABILITY OF OIL AND GAS PIPELINE WITH DEFECTS BY MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION[J].Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2004,40(2):136-140. | |
| Authors: | Dong Yuhua |
| Abstract: | Monte-Carlo sampling technique is employed to investigate relationship among random variables such as crack depth, ratio of crack depth to length, fracture toughness, yield strength, transmission pressure and failure probability of oil and gas pipeline with defects. And criticality importance analysis of fault tree analysis is used to evaluate sensitivity of the random variables. The results show that the fracture toughness and crack depth have significant effect on failure probability of pipeline, as well as the ratio of crack depth to length. In addition, the influence of strength-mismatched factor of welded joint is considered. And annual failure probabilities of different failure modes are evaluated. |
| Keywords: | Pipeline Failure probabilityMonte-Carlo sampling technique Sensitivity analysis Strength match Failure mode |
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