复合Logistic模型对SARS区域疫情的动态描述

根据传染病的发生、发展、流行和转归的基本规律,推导出描述疫情发展的复合Logistic方程模型.从模型曲线和模型参数的实际意义出发,以北京地区为例,对SARS流行的特征参数进行计算、分析与数值预报,从而预见性地阐述SARS流行的数量化规律.并通过模型中参数数值的变化,分析政府措施的效用和节假日对疫情的影响.

The compound Logistic model used to describe epidemic situation dynamics of SARS in Beijing

Based on the rule of happening, development, and lapse of the normal epidemics, this paper discusses a compound model of Logistic life increasing model and applies it to the prevailing rule of SARS in Beijing. Epidemic situation dynamics has been analyzed through the models, with the imitated curve made. From the practical significance of the model's curve and parameter, the typical parameter has been calculated, analyzed and numerically predicted. Thus the numerical rule has been predicted. The data can be used to further analyze whether the government's measures are effective and how the holidays affect the SARS.