基于顺序组件法的系统可靠度敏感性分析方法

岩土工程一般是由多个失效模式组成的复杂系统,且参数的不确定性对岩土工程的失效模式及可靠指标具有重要影响.为了分析参数不确定性对系统可靠度的影响,提出基于顺序组件法的系统可靠度敏感性分析方法(SCMSA).SCMSA利用SCM组合元件的原理,在计算两元件并联和串联的简单系统可靠度及敏感性的基础上,进一步计算两元件组成的组...

System reliability sensitivity analysis method based on sequential compounding method

To analyze the influences of parameter uncertainty on system reliability,a system reliability sensitivity analysis method based on the sequential compounding method(SCMSA)is proposed.The SCMSA makes use of the principle of SCM combination element,and further calculates the equivalent correlation coefficient between the two components and other remaining components in the system on the basis of calculating the reliability and sensitivity of a simple system with two components in parallel or in series,so as to achieve the purpose of combining the two components and simplifying the complex system.The advantage of SCMSA is that it integrates the calculation of the relative sensitivity index into the system reliability analysis,so that the sensitivity analysis can be calculated together as a byproduct of the reliability analysis,and this method can be applied to the system reliability sensitivity analysis of the relative non-normal variables.Finally,a simple numerical example is used to illustrate the calculation process,calculation accuracy and calculation advantage of SCMSA,and it is applied to the sensitivity analysis of a system reliability of semi-gravity retaining wall,indicating that the SCMSA can provide a theoretical basis for the risk analysis and prevention of geotechnical engineering.