Risk assessment for optimum low‐voltage distribution facilities constructed by using genetic algorithms

The influences of uncertainty of the load growth rate and interest rate on the total cost of low‐voltage distribution facilities was investigated. We assumed that the total cost was composed of the initial construction cost, the improvement cost, and the cost of power loss. We also assumed that the distribution facilities were operated for 30 years. Genetic algorithms were used to determine how to construct cost‐effective distribution facilities that did not compromise power quality. Two investment methods were compared: one in which the utility cut down the initial construction cost and improves the initial facilities along with the load growth, and one in which the utility bears the large initial cost without the improvement cost. It was found that the lower cost method depends on the load growth rate and the interest rate. It was also found that the influence of uncertainty in the load growth rate increases with an increase in the differential between the actual load growth rate and the expected one. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 172(2): 10–19, 2010; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20976